United States Election Projections and info

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United States Election Projections and info

Postby Jane Fossett » Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:28 pm

The United States is fast approching the 2008 November 4 election.
It's often hard to figure out who is ahead in the race and where things fit in the current trend dynamic (if it fits at all).
That's partly due to the fact there are a diversity of political polls and survey procedures, and each of them has its own bias.
In addition, the various media services frequently color any such campaign poll results with their own slant.
This year, several secondary news and multimedia sources latched on to an online polling meta-analysis website to get ultra-current, combined projection statistics.
My guess is that many readers are still unaware of it.
Here is the URL:
www.fivethirtyeight.com
We will see if its popularity and touted prediction accuracy prove valid on November 4.
Until that day, the website offers one of the quickest ways a reader can review the developing voter pattern predictions.

I'm posting this notice in the Sailing Forum for obvious reasons. If a skipper wants to keep up-to-date on the election, they can spend an hour or so on each of the remaining days reviewing the candidate's progress and how the voter preferences may be shifting.
Alternatively, a review of www.fivethirtyeight.com 's current tally and how that alters the forward projection of lelction outcome will only take 5 minutes.
That leaves you 55 extra minutes for SAILING!
Last edited by Jane Fossett on Wed Oct 08, 2008 4:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Mothgirl Dibou » Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:49 am

There was a poll in europe as well. In holland 90% of the people hope that Obama is to become the next president. So no online polls needed and lots of time for sailing if you'd let us choose for you.

But then, we elected Harry Potter as our prime minister, so what do we know?
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Postby Cynthia Centaur » Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:39 am

But then, we elected Harry Potter as our prime minister, so what do we know?


Good choice ;-) At least he proofed in the past he's acting and he's acting responsible.

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Postby Liv Leigh » Wed Oct 08, 2008 10:51 am

Mothgirl Dibou wrote:
But then, we elected Harry Potter as our prime minister, so what do we know?


He wasn't elected as such.. the magic of the formations process made him PM. It has struck me for a couple of years that a country that has 70% of people belonging to no church at all has 2 parties with a religious ideology, out of a 3 governing parties.
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Team USA is back. Let's sail.

Postby Jane Fossett » Tue Jan 20, 2009 4:39 pm

Today I stopped by a little store in the city.

A teenager was behind the counter sobbing, eyes bright red, tears streaming over both cheeks.
You never can tell with teens. I wasa teenager a couple years ago, a few years younger than Nber (grin), and I never knew why I was crying, either.
Today in the store I looked at her and thought maybe it was her boyfriend, or a math quiz...
or maybe she got the wrong color teeshirt.
We couldn't communicate much, since the girl behind the counter didn't speak English. That's no big deal, it never stops anybody here (or in SL either).
With facial expressions and hand gyrations I asked her what was wrong. Was there anything I could do?
She watched me... and suddenly got what I was asking.
She broke into a HUGE grin.
Looking up at the television screen, she said: "OBAMA!"

If I wasn't such a rough-and-tough sailor, I would have cried too.

To sailors all around the world today,
all those great friends from places I'll never visit,
but sailors who I've learned to deeply value, respect and trust...

I think USA is back on the water.
Let's SAIL!
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Postby Surfwidow Beaumont » Wed Jan 21, 2009 4:19 am

He is a great orator and its chalk and cheese compared to bush

but MLK, Lincoln and Kennedy were similar and i just hope that they and you all (and his security teams) have learned their hard historical lessons take good care of him :\

it's a good time - one idiot can ruin it all

Kennedy wanted to 'be seen' by his people
and he yesterday wanted to walk the to the White house

I just hope he thinks carefully about this and his risks - i fear he will be a 'man of the people' trouble is some of his people want him outta the picture
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Re: Team USA is back. Let's sail.

Postby MarkTwain White » Thu Jan 22, 2009 4:55 pm

Jane Fossett wrote:She broke into a HUGE grin.
Looking up at the television screen, she said: "OBAMA!"

If I wasn't such a rough-and-tough sailor, I would have cried too.

To sailors all around the world today,
all those great friends from places I'll never visit,
but sailors who I've learned to deeply value, respect and trust...

I think USA is back on the water.
Let's SAIL!



I agree. AND I would love to see the theme of the Obama events leading up to the inauguration become the theme of SL Sailing and the USS:

Regardless of where you moor your boat, WE ARE ONE.
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Re: United States Election Projections and info

Postby Jane Fossett » Sun Oct 24, 2010 3:59 pm

Two years ago I recommended the 'FiveThirtyEight' website for sailors interested in 2008 USA election predictions.
Nate Silver's computer simulations were not well known then;
they were mostly developed to predict the outcomes of sports events.

Since the Obama election, the New York Times apparently agreed Silver's analysis was pretty good;
they brought him on as an election analyst and incorporated his blog into the NYTimes.com website.

The US 2010 election is one week away; for those interested, here's the new link
to FiveThirtyEight and the outcome simulations for the US Congress (updated daily):

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
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Somewhat off-topic

Postby Jane Fossett » Mon Nov 14, 2011 7:14 pm

MarkTwain White wrote:
Jane Fossett wrote:She broke into a HUGE grin.
Looking up at the television screen, she said: "OBAMA!"
If I wasn't such a rough-and-tough sailor, I would have cried too.
To sailors all around the world today,
all those great friends from places I'll never visit,
but sailors who I've learned to deeply value, respect and trust...
I think USA is back on the water.
Let's SAIL!


I agree. AND I would love to see the theme of the Obama events leading up to the inauguration become the theme of SL Sailing and the USS:
Regardless of where you moor your boat, WE ARE ONE.



MTW?
Last year I did exactly what you asked for. :-)

Image

I know it's a bit later,
there's more water under the bridge...
and I know it's very tough for many sailors worldwide.


But this is what I want for USA in 2012:



OKOK; Now Let's Sail!

Go Harvard!
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